Expert rumor: down jacket will rise due to bird flu

Looking forward to the down jacket market at the end of the year, "Up or not rising? This is a problem." Rumors that 30% of the domestic down apparel industry will soar, will it really hit this winter? In the past few days, the reporter has tracked ducklings, ducks, slaughter, cashmere, processing, feather products manufacturing enterprises in six links, combing just received the birds The flu-influenced down industry has rumors that down jackets will rise due to bird flu.

Live duck: Prices have risen after going downhill. “During the bird flu, nobody slaughtered duck meat, but the price of duck hair is really low.” Recently, the Shen boss of Henan Xinxiang Duck Farm told the reporter. Most of the ducks he raised were supplied to the Wuhan market, and they were higher in the bamboo-leaf poultry market than in Honghu ducks and Jingmen ducks in Hubei province.

Recalling the bird flu that happened a few months ago, the owner of Shen has been left with an ambiguity: The ducklings that are released do not dare, and the live ducks must be slaughtered. Before the bird flu, his duck sold more than 6 yuan a pound, and the bird flu sold 3 yuan a pound during the peak period. However, what was unexpected was that the price of duck hair rose at this time. Some people even went directly to the farm to collect duck feathers. The ducks raised by Shen’s boss are ducks and white crossbred ducks and white ducks. The white duck down which is produced is considered to be superior to grey duck down and the price is higher. “When it was the highest, it received 17 yuan per catty. How much, unfortunately, the goods are too little."

Shen Bo’s statement was also confirmed by the duck trader.

On the morning of July 15, the reporter visited the Zhuyeshan poultry trading market. The size of the ducks and white ducks in the herds were uneven, attracting buyers to see the goods from time to time. “The market is recovering, but the number of ducks is still too small.” Pan owner, who has done this for 9 years, told reporters that due to bird flu some time ago, the duck farmers did not recover until the end of May and early June. A lot of ducks were raised, but they were far from the normal level. “You see, some ducks are not big enough to send them in. Even so, the quantity is only about half of the same period last year, so the price of ducks has also doubled. More, two or three yuan per kilogram, now sells seven or eight yuan per catty."

Cash collection: domestic orders have little effect on how big the price of ducks will be, and what will happen to the price of ducks? Under the guidance of Pan, the reporter found Lee, who specializes in slaughtering in the poultry trading market. In his factory, several workers are working Busy slaughter duck hair removal. “Afterwards, the duck hair really rose mad, but it has already dropped its price.” Li told reporters, duck hair can not be sold directly to the down jacket enterprises, in the middle to go through a number of processes, “We sell to the collection of hair, The duck hairs are then transferred to the cashmere, which can be sold to the manufacturers after finishing."

Li said that in the past three months, the price of duck feathers was really like a roller-coaster madness. At its peak, the white-haired duck had risen to 9 yuan a pound, more than twice the price of the same period last year. However, it has fallen sharply this month, at about 6 yuan per catty, and it has continued to decline.

The number of ducks has not yet recovered, the price of ducks has risen, and why the price of duck feathers has fallen? The reporter then found the answer in Lu Zeyong, who has been in the cash collection business for more than 30 years. In an interview with reporters, Lu Zeyong had just delivered all the export orders for this year, and the whole person was relieved. "Avian flu during the collection, each catty should lose a few dollars. No, no, no, ah, signed export orders must be completed." Lu boss told reporters.

It is understood that the down industry signs export orders at the beginning of each year and July is the delivery date. During the outbreak of bird flu, it was the purchase of export orders. When Lu Zeyong received an 80% gap between the amount of duck feathers and orders, he had to raise the purchase price. Some purchase prices exceeded twice the order price. Before the outbreak of bird flu, the price of unprocessed duck feathers he acquired was about RMB 5,000 per ton, and during the peak period of bird flu outbreaks, the highest purchase price reached a sky-high price of RMB 20,000 per ton. "But I think the price of domestic down apparel will not be affected too much by bird flu." Lu Zeyong said that domestic sales orders are usually signed in September and they will be delivered before the end of the year. At this point, the poultry market is gradually recovering. From the current purchase price of 10,000 yuan per ton, it is expected that by September this year, the price of orders this year should be the same as last year.

Processing: Bird flu is not a determinant of price hikes. “Even if there is a price hikes at the end of the down jacket, bird flu will not be the deciding factor,” said Li Lixin, deputy general manager of Wuhan Huafa Feather Products Co., Ltd. in an interview.

Li Lixin introduced that the company acquired dried duck hair that had been dried, disinfected, and velvet after being collected by Lu Zeyong's cash collection boss. This year, the average purchase price was higher than last year, which was 50,000 yuan per ton, which is also direct. The cost of downs will increase, but the price of export orders will be affected. The price of domestic orders will not change too much. This argument coincides with Lu Zeyong's opinion.

Wuhan Jianjiao Garment Co., Ltd. Sales Manager Wang said that China's labor costs will rise about 10% each year, coupled with rising raw materials, the end of the down jacket is inevitable.

The reporter called the well-known down jacket enterprise Yalu Group, and the manager of the Wuhan area, Su, received a telephone interview with the reporter. He said that by the end of this year, the company's down apparel production will not be reduced, and the price increase will not be too large. On the one hand, this is because consumers have limited affordability for rising clothing prices. It is difficult for consumers to accept the price increase alone, and the price of finished down feathers has fallen from the previous 620,000 per ton to about 400,000 yuan. Rising is also based on rising labor costs, cpi and other factors, and has little to do with bird flu."

In this regard, Prof. Liu Shunzhong of the School of Economics, Central China Normal University, also said that he believes that people are now paying more attention to fashion and more diversified clothing choices. Different types of clothing on the market have looted down apparel markets. The outlook for traditional down apparel that is cost, high price, and low efficiency is not optimistic, so the market should not have much gains.