Due to the influence of factors such as the price difference between cotton and cotton at home and abroad, the problem of cotton farmers abandoning cotton for many years has become more prominent. However, according to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, the cotton production pattern seems to have changed in 2017. In 2017, the actual cotton planting area increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers increased. This was mainly due to: improved cotton crop efficiency and comparative benefits, increased support for cotton industry policies, and narrowed cotton price gaps at home and abroad.
In June, the US Department of Agriculture's global cotton supply and demand forecast monthly report showed that the global cotton production and demand gap was 387,000 tons in 2017/2018 (September 2017~August 2018); China's cotton production and demand gap was 3.049 million tons. Although China's cotton stocks are large, if it is dumped at a rate of 2 million tons per year, it will only last for five years, and the gap between supply and demand will become larger and larger in the future. 2017 is a turning point in the cotton industry. In this year, the price difference between cotton and cotton at home and abroad has narrowed, and the cotton planting cotton industry has increased in efficiency. As domestic inventories continue to decline, opportunities for cotton production may come.
Planting area has declined for many years
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cotton planting area in the past 10 years has basically shown a downward trend. From 88.9115 million mu in 2007 to 50,644,500 mu in 2016, the decline was 43.0%. From 2007 to 2010, the area of ​​cotton dropped from 8888.15 million mu to 7273.05 million mu; in 2011, it rebounded slightly to 75.576 million mu; and it fell sharply from 2012 to 2016. At the same time, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has fallen sharply. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, in 2016, the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 24.8% and 27.7% respectively. In contrast, Xinjiang's cotton planting area is relatively stable.
Cotton area increased this year
On June 21, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System released a survey report on the actual cotton planting area. In 2017, the actual cotton planting area was 47.573 million mu, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Among them, the actual cotton planting area in Xinjiang was 31.629 million mu, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the national proportion of the area increased to 66.5%. The national cotton planting gathered in Xinjiang. (The data comes from the national cotton market monitoring system in mid-to-late May, the special survey on the actual cotton planting area in the country, the sample involves 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 70 cotton-growing counties (cities, group farms), 2800 fixed-point plants Cotton information contact households.) The report shows that the actual inland cotton area in the northwest is 31,888,000 mu, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year. Among them, Xinjiang increased by 8.9% and Gansu increased by 52.8%. The actual cotton planting area in the Yellow River Basin was 8,903,000 mu, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year. Among them, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Shaanxi increased by 13.8%, 9.3%, 7.5% and 7.1% respectively. The actual cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin was 6.077 million mu, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi increased by 12.5%, 6.2%, 5.4%, 5.1% and 4.9% respectively.
Cotton planting efficiency has rebounded sharply
The most direct reason for the rebound in cotton planting this year is that the benefits of cotton farmers have rebounded last year. In 2016, the output value of the main cotton products in the country increased, and the income turned from negative to positive, with a large increase. The national sample seed cotton production was 293.0 kg (mu yield, the same below), an increase of 12.1%. The output value of the national cotton main products was 2,407.39 yuan (mu production value, the same below), an increase of 560.46 yuan, an increase of 37.7%. The net profit of the national cotton main products was 541.57 yuan (mu income, the same below), an increase of 563.90 yuan.
Cotton is more effective
At the same time as the increase in income, compared with corn (1681, 7.00, 0.42%) and other crops, cotton is relatively more effective. According to the survey of the national cotton industry technology system project team, in terms of price comparison, the price of lint and rice increased by 12.7%~20.0% in 2016, and the price of wheat increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the price of corn increased by 51.0%. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the average price of seed cotton purchases in 2016 was 7.28 yuan (kg price, the same below), up 24.2% year-on-year; the average price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 7.23 yuan, up 33.7% year-on-year. Relevant data show that the average price of corn in the country at the end of December 2016 was 1.621 yuan, down 17.4% from the beginning of the year. From 2014 to 2017, the minimum purchase price of third-grade wheat countries was 2.36 yuan, which remained stable. In 2016, early indica rice was lowered by 2 yuan compared with 2015, and mid-late japonica rice and japonica rice remained unchanged in 2015. Cotton prices have risen, corn prices have fallen, rice and wheat prices have stabilized, and cotton has improved in efficiency.
According to the Xinjiang Agriculture Department data, it is estimated that the area of ​​wheat in Xinjiang will be 17.765 million mu in 2017, a decrease of 2.076 million mu from the previous year. On the one hand, the area of ​​bud wheat was large last year. On the other hand, the country determined that the target price of cotton in Xinjiang will remain unchanged for three years, and farmers' expectations for cotton yield will increase. As a result, the area of ​​wheat in Xinjiang has decreased and the area of ​​cotton has increased. Recently, the Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission conducted a survey on the cotton yield, production cost and income of 28 survey counties (districts and municipalities) (excluding Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) in 10 districts (states and municipalities) in the region. The results show that , cotton yield, sales price, cost increased slightly, and income increased. It is estimated that the net profit of mu in 2017 will increase by 34.55 yuan compared with the previous year, an increase of 122.62%; the cash income per mu will increase by 92.13 yuan over the previous year, an increase of 11.35%.
The role of industrial policy appears
In order to stabilize cotton production, the state has introduced a cotton target price subsidy policy. If the cotton market price exceeds the target price, the state does not intervene; if the market price is lower than the target price, the state subsidizes the cotton farmers. From 2014 to 2016, the target price level of Xinjiang cotton was 19,800 yuan, 19,100 yuan and 18,600 yuan per ton respectively; the mainland subsidies covered 9 provinces of Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi and Gansu.
On March 16 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Deepening the Target Price Reform of Cotton". From 2017, the target price of cotton will be changed from "one year must" to "three years must". From 2017 to 2019, the target price of cotton in Xinjiang was 18,600 yuan per ton, which was the same as last year. According to the WTO rules, the target price subsidy belongs to the “yellow box†policy. On June 15th, Xinjiang issued the “Key Points for the Reform of Cotton Target Price in the Autonomous Region in 2017-2018â€, and used the financial instruments such as insurance and futures to carry out the pilot of “income insurance futuresâ€. The “insurance + futures†pilot has been launched in the cotton-producing counties such as Shache and Bachu. It is understood that "insurance + futures" is also an important tool for the United States and other developed countries to ensure farmers' income and avoid price risks. On April 10th, the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Establishing Grain Production Functional Zones and Important Agricultural Products Production Protection Zones" clearly proposed the cotton production pattern: Xinjiang is the main source, and the two river basins are supplemented to ensure an area of ​​more than 35 million mu. The important position of cotton production in Xinjiang has been clarified.
Domestic and international spreads narrowed
The target price subsidy pilot policy implemented in the past three years has caused domestic cotton prices to fall, and domestic and international cotton price gaps have narrowed. According to the data released by the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission on July 3, in May, the average price of standard grade lint in the mainland was 16,006 yuan per ton; the average selling price of Xinjiang standard grade lint was 15,912 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengmian futures (September contract) The settlement price is 15,832 yuan per ton. During the same period, the price of cotton outside the country rose slightly. Imported cotton China's main port is quoted at 15,648 yuan per ton (according to 1% tariff); New York cotton futures contract (July contract) is settled at 78.8 cents per pound.
It can be seen that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been reduced to several hundred yuan, and the inner and outer cotton are gradually getting in line. In 2014, the cotton price in Xinjiang was 19,800 yuan per ton. The highest price difference between China and India and China and the United States reached 6010 yuan and 5030 yuan. China's cotton imports are subject to a quota system: quotas are 894,000 tons, tariffs are 1%, and additional sliding taxes are imposed (different tax rates are imposed depending on the price of imported cotton). When the imported cotton duty-paid price is greater than or equal to 15,000 yuan per ton, the import tariff is 3.8%; when it is less than 15,000 yuan, it is calculated according to a certain formula, up to 40%. The duty-paid price is 14,000 yuan, the tax rate is about 5.4%; 13,000 yuan, the tax rate is about 7.8%. The current tax rate has limited impact on cotton imports, and the amount of imports depends on the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton.
Cotton demand gap widened
At present, China's cotton market supply includes three parts: domestic production, dumping and import. According to the global cotton supply and demand forecast monthly report released by the USDA on June 10, the global cotton beginning stock in 2017/18 is 19.452 million tons, the output is 24.89 million tons, the consumption is 25.367 million tons, and the ending stock is 19.097 million tons, since 2011/12. The new low, the demand gap of 387,000 tons. China's initial stocks were 10.003 million tons, the output was 5.225 million tons, the import volume was 1.089 million tons, the consumption was 8.274 million tons, the ending stock was 8.568 million tons, and the demand gap was 3.049 million tons. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the annual consumption of cotton in China has remained at around 7.6 million tons since 2014. The cotton production dropped sharply. The declines in 2014~2016 were 8.4%, 16.7% and 9.7% respectively. The gap between production and demand was expanded to 1.26 million tons, 2.18 million tons and 2.72 million tons respectively. The gap between production and demand was widened.
The expansion of cotton production opportunities is coming?
In 2015, the national storage and storage of cotton will be 2.04 million tons. In 2016, the amount of storage will be close to 3 million tons, and the decline in the inventory of national cotton storage will accelerate. According to customs statistics, cotton imports from 2014 to 2016 were 24.41 million tons, 1,472,400 tons and 896,600 tons, respectively. In the first five months of 2017, imports were 565,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%. Experts believe that cotton stocks seem to be very large, but if you continue to dump at a rate of 2 million to 2.5 million tons per year, only enough to maintain about 4 years, then cotton is definitely in short supply.
In terms of quality, Xinjiang cotton with high quality cannot compete with American cotton; in terms of planting conditions, India can grow cotton all year round, and we cannot compete with India. Some views suggest that we should use cheap foreign land resources and import more low-priced agricultural products. However, experts believe that "we must at least guarantee that 60% of the cotton is used by ourselves, otherwise we will have no right to speak and price the cotton. Let other countries decide that our cotton use will have a greater risk in the future." It can be said that with the decrease in cotton stocks in the next two or three years, the opportunity for domestic cotton to expand production will come. At the same time, opportunities for upstream seed, fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film and other agricultural products and services for the entire industry chain will also come. (The area data in the paper, the statistical statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics and the national cotton market monitoring system are different)
In June, the US Department of Agriculture's global cotton supply and demand forecast monthly report showed that the global cotton production and demand gap was 387,000 tons in 2017/2018 (September 2017~August 2018); China's cotton production and demand gap was 3.049 million tons. Although China's cotton stocks are large, if it is dumped at a rate of 2 million tons per year, it will only last for five years, and the gap between supply and demand will become larger and larger in the future. 2017 is a turning point in the cotton industry. In this year, the price difference between cotton and cotton at home and abroad has narrowed, and the cotton planting cotton industry has increased in efficiency. As domestic inventories continue to decline, opportunities for cotton production may come.
Planting area has declined for many years
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national cotton planting area in the past 10 years has basically shown a downward trend. From 88.9115 million mu in 2007 to 50,644,500 mu in 2016, the decline was 43.0%. From 2007 to 2010, the area of ​​cotton dropped from 8888.15 million mu to 7273.05 million mu; in 2011, it rebounded slightly to 75.576 million mu; and it fell sharply from 2012 to 2016. At the same time, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting has fallen sharply. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, in 2016, the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 24.8% and 27.7% respectively. In contrast, Xinjiang's cotton planting area is relatively stable.
Cotton area increased this year
On June 21, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System released a survey report on the actual cotton planting area. In 2017, the actual cotton planting area was 47.573 million mu, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Among them, the actual cotton planting area in Xinjiang was 31.629 million mu, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the national proportion of the area increased to 66.5%. The national cotton planting gathered in Xinjiang. (The data comes from the national cotton market monitoring system in mid-to-late May, the special survey on the actual cotton planting area in the country, the sample involves 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 70 cotton-growing counties (cities, group farms), 2800 fixed-point plants Cotton information contact households.) The report shows that the actual inland cotton area in the northwest is 31,888,000 mu, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year. Among them, Xinjiang increased by 8.9% and Gansu increased by 52.8%. The actual cotton planting area in the Yellow River Basin was 8,903,000 mu, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year. Among them, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Shaanxi increased by 13.8%, 9.3%, 7.5% and 7.1% respectively. The actual cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin was 6.077 million mu, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi increased by 12.5%, 6.2%, 5.4%, 5.1% and 4.9% respectively.
Cotton planting efficiency has rebounded sharply
The most direct reason for the rebound in cotton planting this year is that the benefits of cotton farmers have rebounded last year. In 2016, the output value of the main cotton products in the country increased, and the income turned from negative to positive, with a large increase. The national sample seed cotton production was 293.0 kg (mu yield, the same below), an increase of 12.1%. The output value of the national cotton main products was 2,407.39 yuan (mu production value, the same below), an increase of 560.46 yuan, an increase of 37.7%. The net profit of the national cotton main products was 541.57 yuan (mu income, the same below), an increase of 563.90 yuan.
Cotton is more effective
At the same time as the increase in income, compared with corn (1681, 7.00, 0.42%) and other crops, cotton is relatively more effective. According to the survey of the national cotton industry technology system project team, in terms of price comparison, the price of lint and rice increased by 12.7%~20.0% in 2016, and the price of wheat increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the price of corn increased by 51.0%. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the average price of seed cotton purchases in 2016 was 7.28 yuan (kg price, the same below), up 24.2% year-on-year; the average price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 7.23 yuan, up 33.7% year-on-year. Relevant data show that the average price of corn in the country at the end of December 2016 was 1.621 yuan, down 17.4% from the beginning of the year. From 2014 to 2017, the minimum purchase price of third-grade wheat countries was 2.36 yuan, which remained stable. In 2016, early indica rice was lowered by 2 yuan compared with 2015, and mid-late japonica rice and japonica rice remained unchanged in 2015. Cotton prices have risen, corn prices have fallen, rice and wheat prices have stabilized, and cotton has improved in efficiency.
According to the Xinjiang Agriculture Department data, it is estimated that the area of ​​wheat in Xinjiang will be 17.765 million mu in 2017, a decrease of 2.076 million mu from the previous year. On the one hand, the area of ​​bud wheat was large last year. On the other hand, the country determined that the target price of cotton in Xinjiang will remain unchanged for three years, and farmers' expectations for cotton yield will increase. As a result, the area of ​​wheat in Xinjiang has decreased and the area of ​​cotton has increased. Recently, the Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission conducted a survey on the cotton yield, production cost and income of 28 survey counties (districts and municipalities) (excluding Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps) in 10 districts (states and municipalities) in the region. The results show that , cotton yield, sales price, cost increased slightly, and income increased. It is estimated that the net profit of mu in 2017 will increase by 34.55 yuan compared with the previous year, an increase of 122.62%; the cash income per mu will increase by 92.13 yuan over the previous year, an increase of 11.35%.
The role of industrial policy appears
In order to stabilize cotton production, the state has introduced a cotton target price subsidy policy. If the cotton market price exceeds the target price, the state does not intervene; if the market price is lower than the target price, the state subsidizes the cotton farmers. From 2014 to 2016, the target price level of Xinjiang cotton was 19,800 yuan, 19,100 yuan and 18,600 yuan per ton respectively; the mainland subsidies covered 9 provinces of Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi and Gansu.
On March 16 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Deepening the Target Price Reform of Cotton". From 2017, the target price of cotton will be changed from "one year must" to "three years must". From 2017 to 2019, the target price of cotton in Xinjiang was 18,600 yuan per ton, which was the same as last year. According to the WTO rules, the target price subsidy belongs to the “yellow box†policy. On June 15th, Xinjiang issued the “Key Points for the Reform of Cotton Target Price in the Autonomous Region in 2017-2018â€, and used the financial instruments such as insurance and futures to carry out the pilot of “income insurance futuresâ€. The “insurance + futures†pilot has been launched in the cotton-producing counties such as Shache and Bachu. It is understood that "insurance + futures" is also an important tool for the United States and other developed countries to ensure farmers' income and avoid price risks. On April 10th, the State Council's "Guiding Opinions on Establishing Grain Production Functional Zones and Important Agricultural Products Production Protection Zones" clearly proposed the cotton production pattern: Xinjiang is the main source, and the two river basins are supplemented to ensure an area of ​​more than 35 million mu. The important position of cotton production in Xinjiang has been clarified.
Domestic and international spreads narrowed
The target price subsidy pilot policy implemented in the past three years has caused domestic cotton prices to fall, and domestic and international cotton price gaps have narrowed. According to the data released by the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission on July 3, in May, the average price of standard grade lint in the mainland was 16,006 yuan per ton; the average selling price of Xinjiang standard grade lint was 15,912 yuan per ton; the main contract of Zhengmian futures (September contract) The settlement price is 15,832 yuan per ton. During the same period, the price of cotton outside the country rose slightly. Imported cotton China's main port is quoted at 15,648 yuan per ton (according to 1% tariff); New York cotton futures contract (July contract) is settled at 78.8 cents per pound.
It can be seen that the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has been reduced to several hundred yuan, and the inner and outer cotton are gradually getting in line. In 2014, the cotton price in Xinjiang was 19,800 yuan per ton. The highest price difference between China and India and China and the United States reached 6010 yuan and 5030 yuan. China's cotton imports are subject to a quota system: quotas are 894,000 tons, tariffs are 1%, and additional sliding taxes are imposed (different tax rates are imposed depending on the price of imported cotton). When the imported cotton duty-paid price is greater than or equal to 15,000 yuan per ton, the import tariff is 3.8%; when it is less than 15,000 yuan, it is calculated according to a certain formula, up to 40%. The duty-paid price is 14,000 yuan, the tax rate is about 5.4%; 13,000 yuan, the tax rate is about 7.8%. The current tax rate has limited impact on cotton imports, and the amount of imports depends on the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton.
Cotton demand gap widened
At present, China's cotton market supply includes three parts: domestic production, dumping and import. According to the global cotton supply and demand forecast monthly report released by the USDA on June 10, the global cotton beginning stock in 2017/18 is 19.452 million tons, the output is 24.89 million tons, the consumption is 25.367 million tons, and the ending stock is 19.097 million tons, since 2011/12. The new low, the demand gap of 387,000 tons. China's initial stocks were 10.003 million tons, the output was 5.225 million tons, the import volume was 1.089 million tons, the consumption was 8.274 million tons, the ending stock was 8.568 million tons, and the demand gap was 3.049 million tons. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the annual consumption of cotton in China has remained at around 7.6 million tons since 2014. The cotton production dropped sharply. The declines in 2014~2016 were 8.4%, 16.7% and 9.7% respectively. The gap between production and demand was expanded to 1.26 million tons, 2.18 million tons and 2.72 million tons respectively. The gap between production and demand was widened.
The expansion of cotton production opportunities is coming?
In 2015, the national storage and storage of cotton will be 2.04 million tons. In 2016, the amount of storage will be close to 3 million tons, and the decline in the inventory of national cotton storage will accelerate. According to customs statistics, cotton imports from 2014 to 2016 were 24.41 million tons, 1,472,400 tons and 896,600 tons, respectively. In the first five months of 2017, imports were 565,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%. Experts believe that cotton stocks seem to be very large, but if you continue to dump at a rate of 2 million to 2.5 million tons per year, only enough to maintain about 4 years, then cotton is definitely in short supply.
In terms of quality, Xinjiang cotton with high quality cannot compete with American cotton; in terms of planting conditions, India can grow cotton all year round, and we cannot compete with India. Some views suggest that we should use cheap foreign land resources and import more low-priced agricultural products. However, experts believe that "we must at least guarantee that 60% of the cotton is used by ourselves, otherwise we will have no right to speak and price the cotton. Let other countries decide that our cotton use will have a greater risk in the future." It can be said that with the decrease in cotton stocks in the next two or three years, the opportunity for domestic cotton to expand production will come. At the same time, opportunities for upstream seed, fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film and other agricultural products and services for the entire industry chain will also come. (The area data in the paper, the statistical statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics and the national cotton market monitoring system are different)
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